Three months into the global coronavirus pandemic, there are growing signs that the long marriage between China and the US—indeed between China and the developed world—is coming apart. That’s prompted “a rethink of how much any country wants to be reliant on any other country,”
Read moreCanceling the debt ceiling apocalypse
Before we begin, let it be said that the looming possibility of the U.S.'s default on its own debt is a not-insignificant issue. Let it also be said that the U.S. government may be unwilling to pay interest on its multi-trillion dollar publicly-held debt as of mid-October, and that this carries substantial risks. And, finally, let it be said that this is something we should most definitely avoid.
Read moreThe Bright Side of Falling Off the Fiscal Cliff
As 2012 sputters to a close, it wraps up with a yawning gap between widespread economic pessimism and the actual state of economic affairs. Though consumer sentiment rebounded in the fall, it fell in December, amid relentless coverage of the impending fiscal cliff. Holiday spending was muted. Businesses, meanwhile, cite the unresolved negotiations in Washington as evidence of continued uncertainty and many have put new spending, hiring, or investment on hold. The media counts the days (and on some cable news channels, the minutes and the seconds) till we descend the fiscal cliff, adding to the general agitation.
Read moreMarkets Continue to Rally
It was a year ago today that Standard & Poor's stripped the U.S. of its coveted AAA debt rating. CNBC's Zachary Karabell, Dan Greenhaus, Michael Farr & Rick Santelli offer insight on the market rally.
Read more2012 Economic Outlook: Why Things Are Better Than We Think
Years from now, when we look back at 2011, it may be remembered as one of the best worst years of the early 21st century. You’d be hard-pressed to come up with an extended period where people were more negative, yet remarkably, in the United States at least, not much actually happened. A summer debt impasse looked dramatic but in the end was resolved, and markets went up and down wildly yet ended largely where they started or better. Judged by every major economic indicator, it was the most stable period in a long while, with every sign that 2012 will be better yet. There is only one not-so-small problem: almost no one believes it.
Read moreObama’s Job Speech Not to Blame for Economic Market Turmoil
It was another rough day for global markets. The major indices in the United States were down nearly three percent, and European markets fared even worse. That much is undebatable. The reasons, however, are. And the reasons initially given were, today at least, totally wrong.
Read moreThe U.S. Will Not Default on August 2
The only thing that matters for global markets over the coming days is whether a deal can be struck in Washington over the debt ceiling. That said, there is one major misconception – fostered by politicians – about what the stakes actually are.
Read more"Jobs, Debt & China" - Hamptons Institute - Guild Hall on VVH-TV
"Jobs, Debt & China: America's Three Financial Challenges" - Hamptons Institute - Guild Hall in collaboration with the Roosevelt Institute on VVH-TV Byron Wien, Vice Chairman, Blackstone Advisory Partners in conversation with Jared Bernstein, Senior Fellow, Center for Budget and Policy Priorities and Zachary Karabell, President of River Twice
Read moreOur Real Debt Problem
On Friday, I posted a piece on the U.S. debt and how we are creating a false crisis given current interest rates and our ability to manage that. Judging from the responses, you would have thought I was penning a piece in defense of eugenics. OK, the online world is not known for its sobriety, but the heated reaction to my post is typical of the current debate about debt.
Read moreWhat Would the Founding Fathers Say About the National Debt? Don’t Default
One of America’s favorite pastimes is to play the “what would the Founding Fathers say” game. Just pick an issue du jour, and ask the question. Given that today’s world (Google, Twitter, television) is probably way beyond even the imagination of the 18th-century designers of the Constitution, the game usually says more about today’s partisan fights than about the Founders.
Read moreMarkets Plunge Because of Greece, China, and the U.S. (Or so they say.)
Another day, another market plunge. Yesterday was notably sharp, with all major indices declining more than 2% and getting worse as the day wore on. The story du jour – and it is an axiom of market declines that there must be a story that goes with it – was that the sell-off was triggered be a toxic combination of weak U.S. economic data, more concerns about Greece and whether it would default on its debts and bring down the Eurozone
Read moreDebt: The Third Rail of Journalism
Last week, I published an essay in Time magazine about debt, arguing that our current preoccupation with the federal deficit and with debt in general is a dangerous distraction from the real issue (namely, our inability to invest and spend wisely to create the economy of the future). The problem isn’t debt per se - after all, the U.S. government took on much more debt during and after World War II, and few would argue that was bad policy or led to disaster. The problem is that we aren’t spending our debt productively; instead, we’re frittering it away on consumption, tax rebates, military budgets to pay for Cold War-era weapons systems, pork projects, or other forms of spending that will not yield returns in the future.
Read moreDeficits and the Chinese Challenge
Consider what happened in 1946, when a cash-strapped Great Britain turned to the U.S. for a loan. For 30 years or more, the British had been consumed by the threat of a rising Germany. Two wars had been fought, millions of lives had been lost, and the British treasury was dramatically depleted in the process. Britain survived, but the costs were substantial.
Read moreDealing with America's Debt Overhang III - Subramanian, Bibow, Karabell, and Rediker
The bursting of the housing and credit bubbles has left the United States with a huge debt overhang. Can we grow our way out of debt without setting off inflation? How can households reduce their debt levels without killing off demand? Does the debt pose a threat to the dollar?
Read moreThe New Unemployment Figures
As the equity markets take another huge step down, it's assumed that American consumers are so shell shocked by their loss of wealth that they will continue to hoard what little cash they have. Yet this relentless negativity may well be overblown: consumers didn't begin this crisis, but they may very well end it.
Read moreCONSUMERS ARE BETTER OFF THAN YOU THINK
As the equity markets take another huge step downward, it's likely that American consumers will continue to be shellshocked by their loss of wealth in both homes and stocks. Yet the relentless negativity about the state of the American consumer may well be overblown.
Read moreDon’t Demonize Debt
As Wall Street continues its slow-motion hari kari, tens of millions of people on the lower-end of the income spectrum are finding that their access to credit is becoming all but nonexistent. As banks set aside ever more cash to cover themselves against potential future losses, the credit spigot that flowed so promiscuously to riskier customers is now not flowing at all.
Read moreAmericans Don't Spend Beyond Their Means
It's become a mantra: American consumers have been living beyond their means, using their homes as piggy banks, borrowing promiscuously, and now the bill is coming due. Having nearly drowned in a sea of debt, U.S. consumers must now repair their personal finances, spend more prudently and recognize the wisdom of past generations: spend only what you earn and what you have.
Read moreThere’s Only One End of the World... and This Isn’t It
So here we are once again on the precipice, at least in terms of global stock markets and credit markets. Another bout of nail-biting panic is hardly unexpected, though it’s always surprising when otherwise sane people veer sharply into hysteria. It’s a good, albeit painful, reminder that the bonds of what we call civilization are always more tenuous than we would like to believe, that things like “value” and “worth” and “the economy” are ultimately the products of human beings simply agreeing on a set of rules. Stocks, bonds, gold, silver, none have any intrinsic value, nor do Gucci handbags, Deere lawnmowers, and GM trucks (in case anyone was wondering about that one). We act as if they do, because it gives us some sense of an orderly world, and because the alternative is just too unsettling to live with on a daily basis.
Read moreDUBAI: TOO BIG TO FAIL
The recent gala opening of the Atlantis hotel on Dubai's Palm island gave one a strong sense the emirate's elite were fiddling while Rome burned. The sheets had hardly been stripped from the beds of the departing guests when the hotel's developer, the government-owned Nakheel Properties,
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