When The Fed sharply increased its target interest rate by three-quarters of a percent, Chairman Jerome Powell remarked, “I wish there were a painless way…There isn’t.” Actually, there is a painless way: stop raising rates.
Read moreInflation May Already Have Peaked. Overreacting Brings Its Own Risks
Why You Probably Don't Need to Worry About 1970s-Style Stagflation
The Seventies were famous for many things: wide-lapels, disco music, Watergate, the middle-class abandonment of cities for suburbs, and of course, stagflation, that toxic blend of soaring prices and stagnant economic growth. Is history repeating itself?
Read moreHow to Make Sense of the Stock Market's Turbulent Year So Far
Here we go again. From late March 2020 till almost the end of last year, stock markets had been on an extraordinary tear. When the pandemic exploded, market plunged close to 30% in a matter of weeks. What the markets giveth, they taketh away.
Read moreWhy We Should Stop Freaking Out About Inflation
For the first time in decades, we are in the midst of a bona-fide inflation scare. Recent numbers came in at 6.2%, the highest since 1990. Much of the world is beset by high demand for goods that have created massive supply-chain bottlenecks, with not enough ships and capacity at ports leading to long delays and higher prices for almost everything.
Read moreThe Fed Finally Realizes That Inflation Isn’t Coming
No Inflation? Technology May Have Left it Back in the 20th Century
The Envestnet Edge, February 2016
The Envestnet Edge from February 2016
Read moreFMN: Leading Indicators - A Brief History of Numbers That Rule Our World
Zachary Karabell on Leading Indicators of Success Every day we are bombarded with numbers. Some tell us how we are doing. Others indicate whether the economy is growing or shrinking and whether the future looks bright or dim. Figures showing gross national product, balance of trade, unemployment, inflation and consumer confidence guide our actions, yet few of us know what they mean or why they are so important.
Read moreDeflating Expectations
n a Reuters poll out this week, most economists say they are expecting more robust inflation this year, to the tune of 2 percent. The poll accurately reflects the plethora of emails from research firms in my inbox—a slowly building chorus predicting rising prices along with an uptick in overall economic activity.
Read moreWhat's the Big Deal About Official Economic Data?
The monthly jobs report is big news on the first Friday of every month, swaying the financial markets and prompting immediate analysis. But should these numbers matter so much? A new book, "The Leading Indicators," argues we overvalue data like the GDP and inflation. Economics correspondent Paul Solman talks to author and analyst Zachary Karabell.
Read moreInflation Hawks Are Waging War Against Their Own Hallucinations
Earlier this week the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its monthly inflation report. The numbers came in at 1.7 percent a year for all items. Excluding the ever-volatile food and energy, it was 1.9 percent.
Read moreThe Unknowable Lightness of Being
Each month, the Federal Reserve releases its latest minutes of its last meeting along with its projections of economic activity (www.federalreserve.gov). The minutes just released indicate that its prior forecasts have been tweaked a bit, with update projections for unemployment over the next two years, GDP growth, and inflation. As new data become available, the hundreds of economists at the Fed revise and recalculate numbers, which means that any forecast rarely lasts more than a few months.
Read moreThink Commodity Prices Are High Now? Just Wait
The just-released monthly inflation report showed that prices for most goods eased a bit. The exception of course is oil, and even though oil prices globally have declined in recent weeks, most Americans are paying ever more for gasoline even as inflation overall remains statistically tame.
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Dealing with America's Debt Overhang III - Subramanian, Bibow, Karabell, and Rediker
The bursting of the housing and credit bubbles has left the United States with a huge debt overhang. Can we grow our way out of debt without setting off inflation? How can households reduce their debt levels without killing off demand? Does the debt pose a threat to the dollar?
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